As you navigate the unpredictable and volatile world of cryptocurrencies, it’s imperative to stay updated with the latest market trends and price predictions. The current bull run has been a roller-coaster ride, with Bitcoin (BTC) bouncing back from a dip to around $77,000 last week and making up over 10% of its value to reclaim the price point of $85,000. Despite this rebound, the recent market corrections have aroused doubts about the sustainability of the current bull phase. However, intriguing data by leading on-chain analytics firm, IntoTheBlock, suggests that the market peak may still be on the horizon.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles Indicate Lower Returns Yet Possible Market Peak Boost by 150%

In a recent installment of their weekly newsletter, the analysts at IntoTheBlock delved into historical data to assess the current state of the Bitcoin market. This informative study sheds light on the fact that BTC is far from attaining its expected returns based on previous cycles, hinting at a potentially active crypto bull run.

Bitcoin, over the years, has seen a consistent decrease in returns post the halving phase- a significant event in the blockchain landscape where Bitcoin miners’ block rewards are halved, essentially slowing the unveiling of new tokens to ensure rarity. This event transpires every four years and serves as a significant milestone in the market cycle.

Post the first halving in November 2012, there was a massive surge in the Bitcoin market, with returns peaking between 6,000% – 8,000%, before dropping to an average of 1,600% – 4,000%. The market still witnessed considerable growth post the second halving as returns soared to about 2,000% before dwindling to 600%. The third halving in May 2020, however, saw modest gains that didn’t exceed 600%. This trend of reducing returns over sequential halving could indicate that BTC’s growth potential might decrease in alignment with price appreciation.

At present, the current Bitcoin cycle has only touched peak gains of 60% post-halving. Even as this fourth cycle is expected to hold on to the trend of diminishing returns, IntoTheBlock’s analysts are forecasting maximal market gains lying between 50%-150%, suggesting that there’s still room for price growth.

Is Bitcoin Poised to Reach its Price Peak in H2 2025?

Further insights from IntoTheBlock indicate that Bitcoin usually touches its market peak approximately 12-18 months post-halving. This could mean that the leading cryptocurrency might witness a significant upswing in its value between mid-2025 and late-2025. However, it would be unwise to overlook the unique market conditions applicable at present, especially in light of growing institutional interest and recent tariff policies laid down by the US government. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $84,391, reflecting a dip of 1.64% over the past seven days.

Does Bitcoin’s diminishing returns signal a maturing market?

The pattern of reducing returns over sequential halving suggests that as Bitcoin’s price grows, its potential for further growth diminishes. This trend is a typical characteristic of a maturing market. Currently, Bitcoin ranks as the eighth largest asset worldwide.

How is the growth of institutional interest impacting the Bitcoin market?

The surge in institutional interest is injecting a fresh dynamic into the Bitcoin market. Increased institutional participation signifies broader market acceptance, augurs greater liquidity, and can impact price stability in the long term.

How do recent tariff policies of the US government influence Bitcoin’s price?

Changes in government policies, such as tariffs, can influence the Bitcoin market, either directly or indirectly. For instance, higher tariffs can lead to increased inflation, which in turn can push individuals and institutions towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

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